Paolo Surico

Professor of Economics

BA (Bari) Master in Economics (Universitat Ponpeu Fabra) PhD (Bocconi)

Paolo Surico is Professor of Economics at London Business School, fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research, research associate at the London School of Economics Centre for Macroeconomics and research consultant to several international policy institutions and central banks, such as the Bank of England and the Financial Conduct Authority, and previously at the IMF and the European Central Bank. Before joining London Business School in 2009, he was Advisor of the External Member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England.

Paolo Surico’s expertise lays at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance with particular emphasis on monetary and fiscal policy, housing and mortgage markets. His recent work focuses on assessing the aggregate effects and distributional impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policies as well as tax reforms and government spending, giving particular emphasis to the role played by household and corporate debt in the transmission mechanism of macroeconomic policies and shocks.

Paolo’s work has been featured in many leading international journals as well as international press (e.g. The Economist and Financial Times) and Italian media (e.g. Sole 24 ore, RAI and Corriere della Sera). Paolo has won numerous awards in recognition of his research achievements and several teaching prizes in recognition of his presentation skills and engaging delivery style. Outside London Business School, Paolo has participated as Keynote Speaker at high profile events hosted by financial and non-financial companies for their client or senior executives, including INEOS, UBS, PwC, Citywire, Rugby Football Union, Dartmouth Partners, Prudential, etc.

His latest lectures and research have focused on the Economics of a Pandemic: the case of Covid-19, World Trends, the economic impact of Brexit, Globalization and Income Inequality, climate change, secular stagnation, the rise of populism, the macroeconomic impact of demographic changes, automation and artificial intelligence, monetary policy, house prices and the credit market, public debt sustainability, household and corporate debt, global imbalances and emerging markets.

Research Awards

Sep 14-Aug 15: British Academy Mid-career Fellowship.
Dec 14: Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Economiques, Science Po Keynote Speaker, workshop on “Empirical Monetary Economics”.
Sep 13: Centre for International Macroeconomics and Finance, University of Cambridge Keynote Speaker, conference on “Modern Macroeconomic Policy making”.
Apr 12: Euro Area Business Cycle Network and Bank of England Keynote Speaker, conference on “Money is Back”.
Nov 11: The Leverhulme Trust, Philip Leverhulme Prize 2011, as outstanding young research scholar under the age of 36 based in the U.K. who has made original and significant contributions in the field of Economics.
Jul 11: London Business School Student Association MBA Best Teacher Award 2011, determined by student vote.
Jun 11: Kiel Institute for the World Economy Excellence Award in Global Economic Affairs 2011, Porsche Scholarship, as best economist under the age of 35 in the research area of global economic affairs.
Nov 10-Oct 14: European Research Council Starting Independennt Research (Grant 263429).
Nov 10: London Business School Student Association MBA First Year Teaching Award 2010 as most appreciated professor by first year students for outstanding efforts teaching.
Sep 08: CEPR/ESI, Best Central Bank Research Prize 2008 for the paper ‘Household External Finance and Consumption’, with Tim Besley and Neil Meads.
Sep 06: CEPR/ESI, Best Central Bank Research Nomination 2006 for the paper ‘Evolving International Inflation Dynamics: World and Country-Specific Factors’, with Haroon Mumtaz.
Apr 02: Scottish Economic Society, Glasgow Cairncross Prize, with Efrem Castelnuovo.
Sep 01-Aug 04: Bocconi University, Milan, Fellow of the PhD in Economics.

Macroeconomics
Monetary policy
Fiscal policy and applied econometrics
Heterogeneous behaviour
Great moderation
International co-movements (nominal and real)
Macrofinance model of the term structure of interest rates
Forecasting
Consumption and access to mortgage finance
Money neutrality
Bank lending channel

2023

Do Tax Increases Tame Inflation?

Cloyne J; Martinez J; Mumtaz H; Surico P

AEA papers and proceedings 2023 Vol 113 p 377-381

Monetary Policy, Corporate Finance and Investment

Cloyne J; Ferreira C; Froemel M; Surico P

Journal of the European Economic Association 2023 Vol 21:6 p 2586-2634

2022

Capital and Income Inequality: an Aggregate-Demand Complementarity

Bilbiie F O; Kanzig K R; Surico P

Journal of Monetary Economics 2022 Vol 126 p 154-169

Employment and the residential collateral channel of monetary policy

Bahaj S; Foulis A; Pinter G; Surico P

Journal of Monetary Economics 2022 Online first

2021

The distributional impact of the pandemic

Hacioglu-Hoke S; Kanzig D R; Surico P

European Economic Review 2021 May Vol 134 p 103680

2020

2019

Consumer spending and property taxes

Surico P; Trezzi R

Journal of the European Economic Association 2019 April Vol 17:2 p 606-649

Regional transfer multipliers

Corbi R; Papaioannou E; Surico P

Review of Economic Studies 2019 Vol 86:5 p 1901-1934

2018

Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations

Mumtaz H; Surico P

Journal of Applied Econometrics 2018 Apr/May Vol 33:3 p 319-331

The consumption response to positive and negative income shocks

Bunn P; Le Roux J; Reinold K; Surico P

Journal of Monetary Economics 2018 June Vol 96 p 1-15

2017

Household debt and the dynamic effects of income tax changes

Cloyne J; Surico P

Review of Economic Studies 2017 Vol 84:1 p 45-81

2016

International fiscal spillovers

Faccini R; Mumtaz H; Surico P

Journal of International Economics 2016 Vol 99 p 31-45

2015

2014

Consumption, income changes, and heterogeneity: evidence from two fiscal stimulus programs

Misra K; Surico P

American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2014 Vol 6:4 p 84-106

The incidence of transaction taxes: Evidence from a stamp duty holiday

Besley T; Meads N; Surico P

Journal of Public Economics 2014 November Vol 119 p 61-70

2013

Bank lending and monetary transmission in the euro area

De Santis R; Surico P

Economic Policy 2013 Vol 28:75 p 423-457

2012

2011

International comovements, business cycle and inflation: A historical perspective

Surico P; Mumtaz H; Simonelli S

Review of Economic Dynamics 2011 Vol 14:1 p 176-198

Two illustrations of the quantity theory of money breakdowns and revivals

Surico P; Sargent T

American Economic Review 2011 Vol 101:1 p 113-132

2010

Monetary policy, inflation expectations and the price puzzle

Surico P; Castelnuovo E

Economic Journal 2010 Vol 120:549 p 1262-1283

The Lucas critique and the stability of empirical models

Surico P; Lubik T

Journal of Applied Econometrics 2010 Vol 25:1 p 177-194

2009

2008

2007

The fed's monetary policy rule and U.S. inflation: the case of asymmetric preferences

Surico P

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 2007:31 p 305-324

The monetary policy of the ECB

Surico P

Scandinavian Journal of Management 2007:109 p 115-135

2004

Model uncertainty, optimal monetary poliy and the preferences of the fed

Surico P; Castelnuovo E

Scottish Journal of Political Economy 2004:51 p 105-126

2003

2021

2020

2019

Employment and the collateral channel of monetary policy

Bahaj S; Foulis A; Pinter G; Surico P

Bank of England staff working paper

2018

Monetary policy, corporate finance and investment

Cloyne J; Ferreira C; Froemel M; Surico P

NBER Working Paper

Regional transfer multipliers

Corbi R; Papaioannou E; Surico P

CEPR Discussion Paper

2017

Policy uncertainty and aggregate fluctuations

Mumtaz H; Surico P

Working Paper

Regional transfers

Corbi R; Papaioannou E; Surico P

NBER Working Paper

2016

Consumer spending and fiscal consolidation: evidence from a housing tax experiment

Surico P; Trezzi R

Social Sciences Research Network

Monetary policy when households have debt : new evidence on the transmission mechanism

Cloyne J; Ferreira C; Surico P

Bank of England Working Papers

2014

Federal transfer multipliers: quasi-experimental evidence from Brazilian municipalities

Papaioannou E; Corbi R; Surico P

Working Paper

Teaching portfolio

Our teaching offering is updated annually. Faculty and programme material are subject to change.

Masters Degrees core courses

A key part of our Masters programmes curriculum.
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Financial Institutions

Financial Institutions
PROGRAMMES WITH THIS CORE COURSE

Masters in Financial Analysis

Managerial Economics

Managerial Economics
PROGRAMMES WITH THIS CORE COURSE

Executive MBA Dubai
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Masters Degrees electives

Optional courses providing a deep dive into specialist areas.
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Emerging Markets

The aim of the course is to give a balanced evaluation of the opportunities and pitfalls for businesses in the main emerging markets of Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, Latin America, South and East Asia, Middle East, and Africa. A detailed framework will be provided within which to evaluate the risks and gains from doing business in a wide variety of emerging markets, particularly the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) economies.
PROGRAMMES WITH THIS ELECTIVE

Executive MBA Dubai

Executive MBA London

EMBA-Global

Masters in Analytics and Management

MBA

Masters in Financial Analysis

Masters in Finance Full-time

Masters in Finance Part-time

Masters in Management

LBS Sloan Masters in Leadership and Strategy

The Economics of a Crisis

This was The Economics of a Pandemic (E607)
PROGRAMMES WITH THIS ELECTIVE

Executive MBA Dubai

Executive MBA London

Masters in Analytics and Management

MBA

Masters in Financial Analysis

Masters in Finance Full-time

Masters in Finance Part-time

Masters in Management

LBS Sloan Masters in Leadership and Strategy

World Economy: Problems & Prospects

The aim of this course is to provide you with the knowledge of what the major issues affecting the global economy and financial markets are likely to be in the next five years and beyond. Therefore, as well as providing a deeper insight into policy and market issues, the course aims to give you greater experience in applying analytical tools developed during Understanding the International Macroeconomy (or a similar basic macroeconomics course) as well as extending your existing theoretical toolkit. We analyse developments of countries and regions of the world as examples on the basis of which we build the understanding of broad economic issues.
PROGRAMMES WITH THIS ELECTIVE

Executive MBA Dubai

Executive MBA London

EMBA-Global

Masters in Analytics and Management

MBA

Masters in Finance Full-time

Masters in Finance Part-time

Masters in Management

LBS Sloan Masters in Leadership and Strategy
Show less
PhD courses

The first step to academic excellence.
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Macroeconomics II

Macroeconomics II
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Paolo Surico

Research Awards

Teaching portfolio

Masters Degrees core courses

PROGRAMMES WITH THIS CORE COURSE

PROGRAMMES WITH THIS CORE COURSE

Masters Degrees electives

PROGRAMMES WITH THIS ELECTIVE

PROGRAMMES WITH THIS ELECTIVE

PROGRAMMES WITH THIS ELECTIVE

PhD courses